XRP Tumbles as Senate Shelves Clarity Act, Fed Rate Decision Looms Large

Regulatory Roadblock Deflates Optimism

XRP has given back recent gains as the U.S. Senate formally shelved the Clarity Act on Monday to prioritize a Russia sanctions bill and federal nominations, according to reporting on the legislative action. The decision marks a sharp reversal from the coin’s brief bullish moment on July 21, when reports emerged that President Donald Trump had agreed to the Clarity Act’s contested ethics provision—a development that briefly lifted passage odds on Polymarket to 43%. That optimism has now evaporated.

The commodity classification bill represents crucial infrastructure for XRP’s institutional adoption. By codifying XRP’s commodity status into law, the Clarity Act would provide the legal certainty that custodians, banks, and ETF issuers require before deploying capital into products tied to the token. Without it, initiatives like Standard Chartered’s stated $8 price target—which hinges on both full Senate passage and $4 billion to $8 billion in new ETF inflows—remain theoretical. With the Senate’s August recess beginning around August 7, the window for passage this year has narrowed dramatically, potentially pushing any revival to 2027.

Macro Backdrop Darkens Crypto Sentiment

XRP’s decline unfolds against a deteriorating macroeconomic environment that has weighted on risk assets broadly. Bitcoin has retreated to the $63,400–$64,000 range, well below its June peaks near $80,000, while altcoins have absorbed the sharpest pressure. The immediate catalyst is mounting uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on July 29. New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is widely expected to hold rates at the 3.50–3.75% band at his second FOMC meeting, though CME FedWatch data showed hike odds climbing as high as 38% as recently as the prior weekend—the highest level this cycle. Even a hawkish hold could unsettle risk-on positioning.

Technical Picture Deteriorates

XRP’s chart paints a cautionary picture. The token is trading at $1.0641, representing an 8% decline over the past week and sitting near a 24-hour low of $1.0450. XRP peaked near $3.40 in mid-2025 but has since traced a descending channel marked by progressively lower highs and lower lows. Technical indicators flash uniformly bearish signals: a confirmed death cross, a relative strength index at 40.9, negative Squeeze momentum, and a composite technical score of -63%. The Average Directional Index stands at just 11.2—among the weakest readings of the summer—indicating no confirmed trend and choppy, directionless price action prone to false breakouts.

The sole technical lifeline is that XRP has reached deeply oversold conditions, historically associated with capitulation and potential reversal setups. For the broader cryptocurrency market, regulatory clarity and Fed policy clarity remain the twin anchors to watch in the coming week.

Source: U.S. Senate, via Decrypt. Not financial advice.