Bitcoin May Confirm August Bear Market Bottom Above $63,000: 10x Research

August Close Above $63,000 Could Confirm Bitcoin Bottom

Bitcoin may be on the cusp of confirming a bear-market bottom in August, contingent on achieving a monthly close above $63,000, according to analysis from 10x Research. The analysis suggests that such a close would activate several cycle indicators from the firm, signaling a potential reversal in Bitcoin’s downtrend. At the time the analysis was prepared, Bitcoin was trading at $63,140, indicating that only a modest price movement would be needed to trigger this technical signal.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, noted in a report shared with Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s July close fell short of the level required to confirm a technical bottom. The firm currently maintains a favorable stance toward long positions but signaled readiness to shift to a neutral bias should Bitcoin break through key support levels and moving averages. Such a shift would indicate that the technical picture had deteriorated substantially.

Macroeconomic Risks and Supply Headwinds

Despite the potential for an August bottom, several significant headwinds could complicate Bitcoin’s recovery path. The Federal Reserve’s baseline case remains steady interest rates, but escalating 10-year Treasury yields could force the central bank to implement a rate hike in September. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions—particularly the Iran conflict—represent an unpredictable variable with potential to derail market sentiment and risk appetite.

Supply-side pressures also merit attention. Miners are generating approximately 100,000 BTC of selling pressure as some operations pivot toward artificial intelligence, adding downward weight to the market. Bitcoin treasury companies are also expected to unwind positions, contributing additional supply. Beyond these technical factors, 10x Research identified broader macroeconomic conditions as the primary threat to the sustainability of a price recovery.

Supporting Evidence from Multiple Market Observers

Several other analysts and firms have independently identified signals suggesting a market bottom may be imminent. Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, indicated in a July 22 report that Bitcoin could have bottomed ahead of the traditional four-year market cycle, which would ordinarily place the low point in September or October. Pandl emphasized that Federal Reserve policy and macroeconomic conditions would remain the critical drivers of price discovery.

Crypto brokerage K33 highlighted that more than half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was held at a loss as of July—a historically significant metric that has preceded market bottoms. K33’s historical analysis shows Bitcoin has bottomed within 13 to 31 days of this threshold being reached in 2017, 2018, and 2022. Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten also pointed to record holdings among long-term investors—14.7 million BTC—as evidence that the market may be approaching a capitulation low. If 10x Research’s August bottom thesis proves correct, it could catalyze a broader recovery across crypto markets and altcoins.

Source: 10x Research, via Cointelegraph. Not financial advice.