Bitcoin Reclaims Key Technical Level as Jackson Hole Fed Decisions Loom

Bitcoin Confirms Critical Technical Milestone

Bitcoin achieved a significant milestone this week by closing above its 50-week exponential moving average—a key resistance level not reclaimed since late 2025. The cryptocurrency finished near $77,730, marking its strongest close in this recovery phase and signaling renewed momentum after extended consolidation. The reclaim of this technical threshold carries particular weight for traders who monitor these benchmarks during bear markets, as historical patterns suggest Bitcoin often retests such lines before either confirming a sustained recovery or capitulating to deeper lows.

This week’s strength built on substantial prior gains, with Bitcoin reaching approximately $79,550 last week—its highest level since early May. The preceding five-day rally delivered price appreciation of up to 27%, pushing the cryptocurrency closer to the $80,000 psychological level that traders view as the next major hurdle for bulls to overcome.

August Emerges as Best Month Since 2017

August 2026 is on track to become Bitcoin’s strongest performing month since 2017, with gains around 22% month-to-date. Beyond headline price gains, profitability metrics across different holder categories have improved substantially. Short-term holders—wallets holding positions for less than 155 days—have achieved profitability just above 11%, while long-term holders saw profits rise to approximately 18.5%. Newer market entrants, who recently faced losses near 1.4%, have now achieved profitability around 12.7%.

These profitability improvements across cohorts suggest recent buyers are establishing positions at more defensible levels. However, on-chain analysis reveals new money participants break even at approximately $73,000—above both short-term and long-term holder cost bases. This creates a critical support zone between $68,000 and $73,000. Should Bitcoin drop below these levels, substantial portions of recent buyers could rapidly reverse into losses, potentially undermining this recovery’s durability.

Federal Reserve Policy Emerges as Central Variable

Bitcoin’s momentum faces a critical test this week as macroeconomic attention focuses on Federal Reserve policy. The annual Jackson Hole economic symposium begins with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote speech in his new role, plus his first public remarks since July’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Investors closely scrutinize Warsh’s commentary on rates and monetary policy, as these decisions directly influence risk asset sentiment, including cryptocurrencies.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign approximately 63% probability that interest rates will remain at their current 3.50-3.75% range following September’s FOMC decision. Broader consensus has crystallized around a “no landing” scenario over the next 12 months—where strong growth and low unemployment persist without triggering recession. However, recent inflation readings continue supporting the possibility of monetary loosening, even as geopolitical risks from regional oil price volatility introduce ongoing uncertainty into the Fed’s policy calculus.

Bitcoin’s technical reclaim and broad profitability gains across holder categories could signal a more durable market bottom, potentially strengthening the foundation for broader crypto market recovery.

Source: Federal Reserve, via Cointelegraph. Not financial advice.