Bitcoin Holds $64K as Hormuz Thaw Ignites Broad Risk-Asset Rally
Hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen to oil traffic sent equity markets surging to record highs and pulled oil prices lower, as Bitcoin steadied near $64,000.
Diplomacy and Oil Markets Drive Risk-Asset Repricing
Prospects for resolving the Strait of Hormuz blockade catalyzed a significant repricing of risk assets on August 4. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled to CNBC that ongoing negotiations with Iran could yield an agreement to reopen the critical waterway “as soon as Wednesday,” potentially moving both sides toward normalized relations. US President Donald Trump echoed this optimism the prior day, suggesting a breakthrough could arrive within the same timeframe. The expectation of restored oil traffic immediately reverberated through commodity markets.
Energy prices felt the immediate impact, with both WTI and Brent crude oil tumbling 4.8% and 4.6% respectively—their steepest declines since mid-July. Equities followed suit, with the S&P 500 ascending to a historic $70 trillion market capitalization. The confluence of geopolitical easing and commodity-price relief created a broadly constructive environment for investors’ risk appetite.
Bitcoin Consolidates as Macro Uncertainty Persists
Bitcoin strengthened into the US market open, reaching $64,176 on Bitstamp with roughly 1% in daily gains. However, momentum stalled as the cryptocurrency encountered technical resistance near its 21-day simple moving average, pegged at approximately $64,388. Support remained anchored near the 50-day average on intraday timeframes.
The cryptocurrency’s muted performance contrasted with the enthusiasm in equities and commodities. Much of this caution likely stems from lingering uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy. According to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, market participants are currently pricing a 56.7% probability of a 0.25% interest-rate increase when the Fed convenes in September. As Bloomberg macro strategist Michael Ball observed, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has provided limited clarity on the central bank’s policy framework, leaving markets particularly sensitive to incoming economic data, energy prices, and fixed-income market signals.
On-Chain Signals Reveal Institutional Demand
Despite subdued price action, on-chain analytics from CryptoQuant painted a picture of underlying strength. The platform identified what it termed “strong accumulation,” noting that 0.7% of Bitcoin’s total supply—approximately 155,000 coins—is now held by investors whose purchase prices averaged between $62,000 and $65,000. This metric suggests absorption of supply at lower levels rather than capitulation or panic selling.
The divergence between conservative price movement and robust on-chain accumulation points to a market divided between leverage-driven traders trimming exposure and longer-term investors viewing current valuations as attractive. As geopolitical risk premiums compress and oil ceases to act as a macro shock factor, Bitcoin faces a clearer path toward pricing based on monetary policy expectations and adoption trends rather than external political risks.
With geopolitical tensions potentially receding, central bank policy decisions loom as the primary determinant of crypto-asset performance, making the Fed’s September meeting a critical inflection point for Bitcoin’s next leg.
Source: Scott Bessent, via Cointelegraph. Not financial advice.