Bitcoin Loss Estimates Climb as Coldcard Hack Investigation Expands

The Coldcard hardware wallet hack continues to reveal the complexities of measuring theft from self-custody accounts. As blockchain investigators piece together the attack, loss estimates from major analytics firms range from 1,400 to over 1,800 Bitcoin—a reflection of both the massive scale and the inherent difficulty in tracking distributed wallet theft.

Blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant has identified 1,432 Bitcoin in confirmed losses based on publicly disclosed victim reports and on-chain verification. However, this figure represents only a baseline. According to Galaxy Research and TRM Labs, independent investigations have uncovered substantially higher amounts through more expansive on-chain pattern analysis. Galaxy currently estimates at least 1,730 Bitcoin in losses that meet its high-confidence threshold, while TRM Labs has traced approximately 1,816 Bitcoin drained across more than 5,200 addresses across four distinct waves of the attack.

Understanding Conflicting Loss Estimates

The disparity between these figures does not indicate error—rather, it reflects different methodological approaches to a fundamentally ambiguous problem. Galaxy Research has directly confirmed over 450 Bitcoin through reports from affected users who disclosed their compromised addresses. Those initial disclosures proved instrumental in identifying additional victims through broader attack patterns and linked transactions, adding another 730 Bitcoin to their analysis. However, Galaxy’s researchers have deliberately withheld many more Bitcoin that show suspicious patterns linked to the attack but lack sufficient victim corroboration to confirm definitively.

Galaxy’s analysis suggests their earlier estimate of up to 1,816 Bitcoin represented a potential upper range rather than a confirmed total. As investigation continues, the figure could increase further. TRM Labs reached similar conclusions through independent analysis, emphasizing that investigators should expect loss estimates to continue rising as new victims come forward. The firm’s analysis traced the attack across four separate operational phases, demonstrating the sophistication and scale of the compromise.

The Self-Custody Investigation Problem

Unlike centralized exchange hacks, which maintain clear records of affected accounts, self-custody theft presents unique investigative obstacles. Investigators cannot access a definitive list of compromised wallets. Instead, they must reconstruct the attack from victim disclosures and blockchain forensics—a process that inherently depends on affected individuals choosing to report their losses publicly.

CryptoQuant’s research leadership explained that the firm deliberately avoids identifying victims solely through on-chain pattern analysis to prevent false positives. Starting with public disclosures from confirmed victims, analysts cross-reference these reports against known attack signatures. This conservative methodology establishes the 1,432 Bitcoin figure as a floor—a minimum that could rise if more victims publicly disclose their hacked addresses. The firm acknowledges that complete loss measurement remains impossible when victims retain privacy about compromised accounts.

Galaxy Research has adopted similar principles, withholding suspected losses that cannot be sufficiently corroborated. This discipline ensures published figures reflect verified losses rather than speculation or pattern-based inferences. For the broader cryptocurrency market, hardware wallet security directly influences whether new and institutional investors feel comfortable holding assets in self-custody rather than relying on centralized exchanges.

Source: Galaxy Research and TRM Labs, via Cointelegraph. Not financial advice.