FlightAware Sues Kalshi Over Use of Flight Data in Prediction Markets
Aviation data provider FlightAware has filed a federal lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging trademark infringement and unauthorized use of its real-time flight information to run wagering markets on flight cancellations.
Trademark and Data Dispute in Prediction Market Space
FlightAware, the aviation data company offering real-time flight information globally, has launched a legal challenge against Kalshi, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York. The lawsuit contends that Kalshi has repeatedly violated FlightAware’s trademark rights by using its registered mark and proprietary flight data to operate prediction markets on commercial flight cancellations and delays.
According to the filing, Kalshi continued offering these event contracts despite receiving multiple cease-and-desist notices from FlightAware. The complaint alleges trademark infringement, breach of contract, injury to business reputation, and unfair competition. Kalshi had not provided a public response to the allegations at the time of this report.
Safety Concerns Over Market Incentives
The lawsuit emphasizes risks to public safety beyond intellectual property claims. FlightAware argues that permitting market participants to wager on flight cancellations creates dangerous incentive structures. Those with advance operational knowledge could profit from disruptions, while aviation workers betting on on-time performance might be incentivized to compromise safety standards.
The filing documents real-world manipulation cases across prediction markets. One involved a high-profile political figure’s teleprompter operator earning significant sums by betting on specific words used in speeches. Another case featured a military service member allegedly wagering on a foreign leader’s ouster using nonpublic intelligence about military operations. These instances demonstrate how insiders can exploit prediction market contracts for financial gain.
The aviation industry has publicly condemned flight-based prediction markets on Kalshi. The lawsuit emphasizes industry-wide “outrage and concern” that such markets could incentivize unsafe interference with air travel, with airlines formally opposing the contracts.
Widening Regulatory Pressure on Prediction Platforms
This lawsuit represents escalating legal challenges facing prediction market platforms. Gaming authorities and state regulators have increasingly moved to restrict Kalshi and competing services from offering certain event contracts, typically arguing they constitute illegal wagering under state law. This ongoing regulatory battle reflects deeper tension between federal and state authorities over how prediction markets should be classified and regulated.
Prediction markets have achieved significant scale despite regulatory headwinds. Kalshi and Polymarket collectively control over 90% of prediction market volume, with combined notional trading exceeding $90 billion in the second quarter of 2026. A recent New York court decision refused to halt enforcement actions against Kalshi, signaling continued regulatory momentum against expanded market offerings. The dispute underscores how regulatory pressure on crypto-based derivatives platforms affects the broader digital asset ecosystem.
Source: FlightAware, via Cointelegraph. Not financial advice.