Standard Chartered Sees Bitcoin Rally to $100K as US Treasury Bolsters Long-End Bond Buybacks
A major banking analyst believes Bitcoin could surge to $100,000 by year-end following the US Treasury's expanded support for longer-dated government bonds, which historically benefits the leading cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Technical Setup Points to Six-Figure Breakout
Bitcoin is gathering momentum toward its next major price milestone after a recent pullback, according to analysis from Standard Chartered. The cryptocurrency has climbed back toward $69,000 levels, representing more than 6% gains in recent trading, marking its strongest performance since early June. Analyst Geoff Kendrick from the institution highlighted that a critical technical level sits at $65,500—a breach above this threshold would suggest that Bitcoin has already found its cycle low and is poised for an extended rally.
Kendrick’s outlook remains decidedly bullish, with the analyst positioning investors to prepare for a potential advance toward $100,000 by the close of 2026. His thesis draws on Bitcoin’s four-year cycle dynamics, which he suggested are approaching a turning point. The technical setup, combined with what he describes as improving liquidity conditions, creates the foundation for this aggressive price target.
US Treasury’s Expanded Bond Program Fuels Market Rally
A significant catalyst emerged when the US Treasury Department announced expanded support for the government bond market aimed at stabilizing long-dated yields. According to Standard Chartered’s analysis shared with Cointelegraph, the Treasury will at least double the maximum size of certain liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-maturity government securities. Specifically, the department will raise the ceiling on buyback operations targeting 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year nominal coupon bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.
The enhanced program commenced operations on September 9 and will continue through November 4. The announcement immediately impacted markets, driving long-dated Treasury yields significantly lower and alleviating pressure that had accumulated across financial markets following an earlier bond selloff. Kendrick characterized this intervention as “exactly the type of thing Bitcoin loves,” emphasizing that the digital asset has historically thrived during periods when governments implement liquidity support measures. Bitcoin’s fixed supply also contributes to this relationship, as the cryptocurrency maintains resistance to the monetary expansion that often accompanies central bank and government intervention programs.
Why This Matters for Digital Assets
The convergence of technical factors and macroeconomic stimulus creates a potentially powerful environment for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market. When governments step in to support financial market liquidity, as the Treasury’s expanded buyback program demonstrates, risk assets and alternative value stores have historically benefited. Bitcoin’s immutable supply of 21 million coins stands in contrast to traditional monetary policy tools, positioning it as an alternative for investors concerned about debasement during periods of active government market intervention. As traditional finance grapples with interest rate management and liquidity challenges, cryptocurrencies with fixed supplies and deflationary characteristics become increasingly attractive to institutional and retail participants seeking non-correlated assets.
Source: Standard Chartered, via Cointelegraph. Not financial advice.