Bitcoin’s Sharp Rally Shifts Prediction Markets From Bearish to Coin Flip

Bitcoin Breaks Five-Month Stagnation

Bitcoin delivered its most powerful rally in five months this week, trading near $71,556 on Thursday after gaining 3.26% that single day. This momentum extended Wednesday’s dramatic 8.7% surge, marking the strongest one-day move since early March and reaching levels unseen since June. The rebound represented a visible departure from months of bearish pressure that had kept traders positioned defensively.

The sudden strength forced rapid recalibration across prediction markets. Days earlier, participants wagering through platforms like Myriad had positioned overwhelmingly bearish—roughly 70% of traders anticipated Bitcoin would sink to $55,000. By Wednesday afternoon, that conviction had collapsed. Odds shifted to near parity, with approximately 52% backing a move to $84,000 while 48% continued expecting a decline to $55,000.

Skepticism Remains Widespread Across Betting Platforms

Despite the impressive two-day move, caution about Bitcoin’s durability persists. On Polymarket, traders were still assigning only 51% probability that Bitcoin would reach $75,000 before year-end, while pricing 56% odds of a retreat to $55,000 within the same timeframe. Kalshi users had positioned for merely a 54% chance Bitcoin would clear $67,500 during August and just 31% odds of hitting $70,000—both thresholds already exceeded during Wednesday’s rally.

Another August contract on Polymarket placed Bitcoin above $75,000 at 47% probability with roughly $12 million in volume. Notably, near-term markets absorbed most of the rally’s impact while year-end contracts barely shifted, suggesting traders interpret the current surge as potentially transitory rather than a genuine long-term reversal.

Record trading volumes across prediction platforms reflect growing use of these venues to hedge against portfolio moves. This elevated activity means the rapid odds swings capture as much trader positioning adjustments as genuine conviction shifts—many participants appear caught off guard by the sudden strength.

Technical Levels Define What Comes Next

Bitcoin traders are eyeing $70,284 as the critical technical test. A sustained daily close above this resistance could open a path toward $73,245 and beyond. Conversely, a drop below $68,000 would likely force Bitcoin back into the compressed range that has confined it since June—the same pattern preceding sharp declines in October 2025 and January 2026.

Despite the impressive performance, sentiment remains guarded at best. Myriad currently prices the bullish scenario at 52%—barely above a coin flip. This positioning reflects market participants treating the rally as significant but uncertain, unwilling to commit conviction to sustained upside momentum. Divergent signals across prediction markets underscore lingering uncertainty about Bitcoin’s trajectory at a moment when the broader crypto market watches closely for directional conviction.

Source: Decrypt. Not financial advice.